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2019 Women's World Cup Predictions

Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings and chances of advancing for every team
Team Rating
Chance of Finishing Group Stage In ...
Knockout Stage Chances
team
group
spi
Off.
Def.
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Make Round of 16
Make Qtr-Finals
Make Semifinals
Make Final
Win World Cup
USA flag
USA6 pts.
F
98.3
5.5
0.6
83%
17%
78%
47%
35%
24%
France flag
France6 pts.
A
96.3
4.3
0.5
>99%
<1%
<1%
78%
42%
30%
19%
Germany flag
Germany6 pts.
B
93.8
4.0
0.7
98%
2%
89%
48%
28%
12%
Canada flag
Canada6 pts.
E
93.5
3.7
0.6
39%
61%
59%
36%
20%
9%
England flag
England6 pts.
D
91.9
3.5
0.6
71%
29%
69%
43%
16%
8%
Netherlands flag
Netherlands6 pts.
E
92.7
3.9
0.7
61%
39%
59%
37%
19%
8%
Australia flag
Australia3 pts.
C
92.8
4.2
0.9
13%
54%
34%
>99%
54%
26%
10%
5%
Sweden flag
Sweden6 pts.
F
88.4
3.0
0.6
17%
83%
47%
20%
10%
4%
Japan flag
Japan4 pts.
D
90.3
3.8
0.9
29%
63%
8%
46%
27%
9%
4%
Brazil flag
Brazil3 pts.
C
89.5
3.6
0.9
26%
22%
52%
>99%
43%
17%
7%
3%
Spain flag
Spain3 pts.
B
86.5
3.1
0.8
1%
70%
29%
>99%
31%
11%
5%
2%
Norway flag
Norway3 pts.
A
83.7
3.0
0.9
<1%
94%
5%
>99%
44%
18%
4%
2%
China flag
China3 pts.
B
82.7
2.7
0.8
<1%
29%
70%
93%
34%
11%
3%
<1%
Italy flag
Italy6 pts.
C
76.1
3.0
1.3
61%
24%
15%
37%
9%
2%
<1%
New Zealand flag
New Zealand0 pts.
E
77.6
2.8
1.2
48%
40%
10%
4%
<1%
<1%
Nigeria flag
Nigeria3 pts.
A
71.7
2.4
1.1
<1%
5%
91%
50%
13%
3%
<1%
<1%
Cameroon flag
Cameroon0 pts.
E
65.8
2.1
1.2
52%
23%
4%
1%
<1%
<1%
South Korea flag
South Korea0 pts.
A
76.4
2.7
1.1
<1%
4%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Scotland flag
Scotland0 pts.
D
54.0
2.0
1.7
53%
52%
3%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Argentina flag
Argentina1 pts.
D
39.2
1.5
1.9
8%
40%
25%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Jamaica flag
Jamaica0 pts.
C
53.5
2.5
2.1
<1%
<1%
<1%
Thailand flag
Thailand0 pts.
F
40.7
2.0
2.4
34%
2%
<1%
<1%
South Africa flag
South Africa0 pts.
B
56.7
1.7
1.3
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Chile flag
Chile0 pts.
F
46.5
1.8
1.8
66%
15%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Forecast from before 3rd group matches

Source: FiveThirtyEight

Raw data: wwc_forecasts.csv

Source Code

Full source: vignettes/womens-world-cup/womens-world-cup.Rmd

library(reactable)
library(htmltools)

forecasts <- read.csv("wwc_forecasts.csv", stringsAsFactors = FALSE)

rating_cols <- c("spi", "global_o", "global_d")
group_cols <- c("group_1", "group_2", "group_3")
knockout_cols <- c("make_round_of_16", "make_quarters", "make_semis", "make_final", "win_league")
forecasts <- forecasts[, c("team", "points", "group", rating_cols, group_cols, knockout_cols)]

rating_column <- function(maxWidth = 55, ...) {
  colDef(maxWidth = maxWidth, align = "center", class = "cell number", ...)
}

group_column <- function(class = NULL, ...) {
  colDef(cell = format_pct, maxWidth = 70, align = "center", class = paste("cell number", class), ...)
}

knockout_column <- function(maxWidth = 70, class = NULL, ...) {
  colDef(
    cell = format_pct,
    maxWidth = maxWidth,
    class = paste("cell number", class),
    style = function(value) {
      # Lighter color for <1%
      if (value < 0.01) {
        list(color = "#aaa")
      } else {
        list(color = "#111", background = knockout_pct_color(value))
      }
    },
    ...
  )
}

format_pct <- function(value) {
  if (value == 0) "  \u2013 "    # en dash for 0%
  else if (value == 1) "\u2713"  # checkmark for 100%
  else if (value < 0.01) " <1%"
  else if (value > 0.99) ">99%"
  else formatC(paste0(round(value * 100), "%"), width = 4)
}

make_color_pal <- function(colors, bias = 1) {
  get_color <- colorRamp(colors, bias = bias)
  function(x) rgb(get_color(x), maxColorValue = 255)
}

off_rating_color <- make_color_pal(c("#ff2700", "#f8fcf8", "#44ab43"), bias = 1.3)
def_rating_color <- make_color_pal(c("#ff2700", "#f8fcf8", "#44ab43"), bias = 0.6)
knockout_pct_color <- make_color_pal(c("#ffffff", "#f2fbd2", "#c9ecb4", "#93d3ab", "#35b0ab"), bias = 2)

tbl <- reactable(
  forecasts,
  pagination = FALSE,
  defaultSorted = "win_league",
  defaultSortOrder = "desc",
  defaultColGroup = colGroup(headerVAlign = "bottom"),
  columnGroups = list(
    colGroup(name = "Team Rating", columns = rating_cols),
    colGroup(name = "Chance of Finishing Group Stage In ...", columns = group_cols),
    colGroup(name = "Knockout Stage Chances", columns = knockout_cols)
  ),
  defaultColDef = colDef(
    vAlign = "center",
    headerVAlign = "bottom",
    class = "cell",
    headerClass = "header"
  ),
  columns = list(
    team = colDef(
      defaultSortOrder = "asc",
      minWidth = 200,
      headerStyle = list(fontWeight = 700),
      cell = function(value, index) {
        div(
          class = "team",
          img(class = "team-flag", alt = paste(value, "flag"), src = sprintf("images/%s.png", value)),
          div(
            span(class = "team-name", value),
            span(class = "team-record", sprintf("%s pts.", forecasts[index, "points"]))
          )
        )
      }
    ),
    points = colDef(show = FALSE),
    group = colDef(defaultSortOrder = "asc", align = "center", maxWidth = 75,
                   class = "cell group", headerStyle = list(fontWeight = 700)),
    spi = rating_column(format = colFormat(digits = 1)),
    global_o = rating_column(
      name = "Off.",
      cell = function(value) {
        scaled <- (value - min(forecasts$global_o)) / (max(forecasts$global_o) - min(forecasts$global_o))
        color <- off_rating_color(scaled)
        value <- format(round(value, 1), nsmall = 1)
        div(class = "spi-rating", style = list(background = color), value)
      }
    ),
    global_d = rating_column(
      name = "Def.", 
      defaultSortOrder = "asc",
      cell = function(value) {
        scaled <- 1 - (value - min(forecasts$global_d)) / (max(forecasts$global_d) - min(forecasts$global_d))
        color <- def_rating_color(scaled)
        value <- format(round(value, 1), nsmall = 1)
        div(class = "spi-rating", style = list(background = color), value)
      }
    ),
    group_1 = group_column(name = "1st Place", class = "border-left"),
    group_2 = group_column(name = "2nd Place"),
    group_3 = group_column(name = "3rd Place"),
    make_round_of_16 = knockout_column(name = "Make Round of 16", class = "border-left"),
    make_quarters = knockout_column(name = "Make Qtr-Finals"),
    make_semis = knockout_column(name = "Make Semifinals", maxWidth = 90),
    make_final = knockout_column(name = "Make Final"),
    win_league = knockout_column(name = "Win World Cup")
  ),
  # Emphasize borders between groups when sorting by group
  rowClass = JS("
    function(rowInfo, state) {
      const firstSorted = state.sorted[0]
      if (firstSorted && firstSorted.id === 'group') {
        const nextRow = state.pageRows[rowInfo.viewIndex + 1]
        if (nextRow && rowInfo.values['group'] !== nextRow.group) {
          return 'group-last'
        }
      }
    }"
  ),
  showSortIcon = FALSE,
  borderless = TRUE,
  class = "standings-table"
)

div(class = "standings",
  div(class = "title",
    h2("2019 Women's World Cup Predictions"),
    "Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings and chances of advancing for every team"
  ),
  tbl,
  "Forecast from before 3rd group matches"
)
htmltools::tags$link(
  href = "https://fonts.googleapis.com/css?family=Karla:400,700|Fira+Mono&display=fallback",
  rel = "stylesheet"
)
.standings {
  font-family: Karla, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;
  font-size: 0.875rem;
}

.title {
  margin-top: 2rem;
  margin-bottom: 1.125rem;
  font-size: 1rem;
}

.title h2 {
  font-size: 1.25rem;
  font-weight: 600;
}

.standings-table {
  margin-bottom: 1.25rem;
}

.header {
  border-bottom-color: #555;
  font-size: 0.8125rem;
  font-weight: 400;
  text-transform: uppercase;
}

/* Highlight headers when sorting */
.header:hover,
.header[aria-sort="ascending"],
.header[aria-sort="descending"] {
  background-color: #eee;
}

.border-left {
  border-left: 2px solid #555;
}

/* Use box-shadow to create row borders that appear behind vertical borders */
.cell {
  box-shadow: inset 0 -1px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.15);
}

.group-last .cell {
  box-shadow: inset 0 -2px 0 #555;
}

.team {
  display: flex;
  align-items: center;
}

.team-flag {
  height: 1.3rem;
  border: 1px solid #f0f0f0;
}

.team-name {
  margin-left: 0.5rem;
  font-size: 1.125rem;
  font-weight: 700;
}

.team-record {
  margin-left: 0.35rem;
  color: hsl(0, 0%, 45%);
  font-size: 0.8125rem;
}

.group {
  font-size: 1.1875rem;
}

.number {
  font-family: "Fira Mono", Consolas, Monaco, monospace;
  font-size: 1rem;
  white-space: pre;
}

.spi-rating {
  display: flex;
  align-items: center;
  justify-content: center;
  margin: auto;
  width: 1.875rem;
  height: 1.875rem;
  border: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);
  border-radius: 50%;
  color: #000;
  font-size: 0.8125rem;
  letter-spacing: -1px;
}